[*Move resolutions in your Union branch and Labour…]

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*Move resolutions in your Union branch and Labour Party clearly demanding that the TUC call action *Spell out demands for: an end to all joint committees, tribunals and talks with the employers and the Tories; Labour MPs to mobilise against the Tebbit Bill in the constituencies and in Parliament; the TUC to call a one-day strike or series of strikes against the Bill as part of a campaign for all-out action to defeat *Join the Socialist Organiser contingent lobbying the TUC conference of Executives on April 5 demanding *Support the conference on trade union democracy called by Socialist Organiser and London Labour BriefCarried at TGWU Birmingham joint automotive and power and engineering quarterly shop stewards' meeting:

"That this meeting of Engineering and Automotive Shop Stewards fully supports the opposition being mounted against Norman Tebbit's Bill and calls on our Executive Committee to initiate and support positive industrial action (up to and including strike action) at the special TUC conference to be held on 5th April. We also call upon all members to actively support the various campaigns that will be taking place in the near future, including disputes if necessary, and further undertake to hold factory/shop meetings to explain the full implications of the Bill on it becoming law." ment for the movement to confront the Tory government in self-defence.

We still have immense strength. The rot, the debilitating lack of self-confidence, the urge to do a deal with the Tories - that all comes from the top of the labour movement.

Strike figures are lower than for many years, but in a whole range of limited struggles over the last year the rank and file has shown a powerful will to fight.

Look at BL: treason by Duffy and weakness among convenors like Jack Adams led to the collapse of the attempt to get concerted national action last November. It has been followed for three months by a rash of struggles throughout Edwardes' empire - unfortunately lacking coordination.

Smashed

Edwardes could have been smashed. The Tories can be smashed. We must argue inside the labour movement for the preparation of a general strike to throw out anti-union legisand obstruct and confront them: refuse collaboration in every area from Parliament to the NEDC.

That is the way to rouse KUN up the labour movement now to defeat the Tebbit Bill.

Shut LEANIS for a fight back.

Respond COMMITTEE The conference called by Socialist Organiser, London Labour Briefing and others on trade union democracy will be discussing the Tory attack on the unions as the most threatening • immediate chall- the Tory anti-union offensive. enge the labour movement faces. We will be discussing how to respond to it, hammering out policies, and forging the rank and file organisational sinews strike action against Tebbit. for the necessary fightback.

We will discuss plans to further the fight to democratise the unions and to break the power of the ing on April 3. bureaucracy, which is once against showing itself to be the best friend the ruling class and its Tories have within the labour E sui movement.

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THE inexorable march of old age and death ranks of the Kremlin bureaucracy has for some ted speculation on the probable successor to But a new touch has been added during the past week with revelations of some of the scandals involving Brezhnev's family and their political cronies on the party's leading PolitIn particular Brezhnev's (53 year old) daughter Galina has been linked both with a prominent diamond and currency speculator Boris Tzigan ('Boris the Gypsy') and with the police chief in charge of investigating him.

Another close friend of Galina is another gold and diamond speculator - the head of Soviet State Circuses Both speculators have been arrested in the last three But more damaging still, it appears that the recent death of the deputy head of the KGB, Semyon Tsvigun was suicide, following a major confrontation with Brezhnev's chief ideological body-guard — the late Mikhail Suslov.

The conflict was apparently around Tsvigun's investigations into top level party corruption, which threatened to spread their tentacles to embrace Breznhev's son Yuri's activities in his lucrative post as Deputy Foreign Trade Minister. Suslov himself died a week after his exertions in But among Brezhnev's surviving allies in beating back any probe of the seamy affairs of his family and their jet-setting friends are three other Politburo leaders who avail themselves of a notoriously luxurious style of life - Andrei Kirilenko, Konstantin Chernenko, and Vladimir Shcherbitsky.

The investigation is being pressed home by none other than KGB chief Yuri Andropov - who as a Politburo member himself, plainly has his own views on who should succeed Unlike similar scandals in the capitalist countries these bureaucrats are playing for high stakes. While capitalists can engage in indiscretions secure in the knowledge that their private wealth will remain intact, in Russia the losers could find themselves rapidly stripped of all of their present lavish privileges and pilloried by their rivals as convenient scapegoats for the rampant corruption of the bureaucracy as a arrange the result, Brian Lucas looks at Organiser no. 76 11, 1982 Page President Brezhnev.

buro.

Anatoly Kolevatov.

months and are under investigation. silencing Tsvigun.

Brezhnev. whole.

In this context, while Andropov tries race for succession at the Kremlin.

BREZHNEV, throughout his tenure of office has conspicuously avoided grooming, or more importantly, allowing the natural emergence of a successor.

It is an anomaly of the highly structured bureaucratic system of the degenerated workers' state, that no set procedure exists for the ascension into power of a subordinate on the death or retirement of the leader.

Instead the leader will be decided in much the same way as the Vatican chooses the next Pope, by manoeuvres smoke-clad backrooms.

As to who will succeed to the throne in the Kremlin, the race is wide open. Socialist Organiser bookmakers were quoting odds of two-to-one on for a triumvirate, 5 to 1 for one outright winner, and 6 to 1 that Brezhnev died five years ago and at the moment power is held by an android!

Though there are approximately 24 runners in this race, only 12 of these can be regarded as serious contenders.

They are the Politburo, as it stands today.

But even within these 12 there are some rank outsiders who stand little or no chance.

Outsiders Under any circumstances Arvid Pel': she must be discounted. He is 82 now and although his day his age - and position as the secretary of the Latvian CP - must exclude him from the top post.

Only four others can really be regarded as outsiders, and two of these mainly on the criterion of age.

In ineir oUs, 50s, Priori through the time promp75 year-old to fix the odds and the runners in the Andropov Romanov and Mikhail Gorbachev are very much the babies of the Politburo! But these cannot be totally disregarded if Brezhnev clings onto life for another five years.

Romanov is certainly a name for the future. He is seen as the leading member of a new generation of super-bureaucrats. Other leading members of this group are Dolgikh and Ryabov, but tor the moment, at least, these can be left out of the reckoning.

A third outsider is Kunayev. Although he has been a Politburo member for a long time his membership seems to be due to the fact that he is both First Secretary of the Kazak CP and a close personal friend of Brezhnev!

Another personal associate of Brezhnev' 's who would be an outsider for the post is the high-living Vladimir Shcherbitsky.

At the tender age of 63 he has comparative "youth" on his side, but he also has a considerable experience of the inner workings of the Politburo.

Furthermore, his position as First Secretary of the Ukrainian party gives him some power base, albeit outside the mainstream of Soviet politics.

Virtually discounting this younger element, we must concentrate on the oldies.

Leading the aged. we have Prime Minister Nikolai Tikhanov. At 76, his tenure on life must be at least as precarious as Brezhnev himself, although he is quoted as saying "A 70 year long life span is not a short one, but at the same time it is not a very long one. It is a good thing that in our country this is only considered i middle aged." (!!)

There are, however, doubts as to whether he is destined for any higher office - he only joined the Politburo as a full member in 1980 and although his rise to premiership can be seen as somewhat meteoric in Soviet terms, the premiership does tend to be a dead end position in terms of political advancement.

However, Tikhanov must be considered as a possible member of any powersharing group who may take control in the immediate future.

Gerontocracy

Another member of a power-sharing gerontocracy would inevitably be Andre Kirilenko. At the age of 75, he has spent 18 years in the Politburo and 14 in the Central Committee and he holds the post of secretary to the It is from this post that all three leaders since Lenin have emerged. bui Kirilenko is extremely unlikely to take sole charge; instead it could be argued that a more fruitful occupation for him would be to look around to find a successor to him as top party Another member of the "well over 70" group is defence • minister Dmitri Ustinov. Usually when his name is mentioned, it is accompanied by a glowing reference like "highly gifted' , though quite why or what he is highly gifted at is not specified.

He would certainly be the choice of the powerful military/industrial sector of the bureaucracy with which he seems to have a special relationship.

By the process of agt and pedigree elimination we are left with the four best bets: Gromyko, Andropov, Chernenko and Grishin.

Andrei Gromyko is probably the most difficult member of the Politburo to place. As foreign minister he is very well known to Western television screens, perhaps only second to Brezhnev.

However, inside the USSR his prestige is not quite so high. He was made a full member of the Politburo in 1973 and has enjoyed a position in the top six thereafter.

But at 71 years of age, he is no spring chicken, and he suffered a setback in the personality ratings in the 26th CPSU Congress last year, at the hands of Brezhnev.

Not only was he demoted in the seating order (usually a reliable source of information as to who is in favour at that particular moment), but his chairmanship of the conference was also put back after all the top leaders and Shcherbitsky, Kunayev and Pel'she.

So how much influence and support Gromyko will eventually get is a puzzle.

Another contender for the top post who joined the Politburo in 1973 is Yuri Andropov.

Mystery

There is little mystery about this man. He has a solid army background, rising to the post of General (if Poland is regarded as a trend setting for the Soviet bloc, Andropov must be the man for the USSR).

He has for many years been the head of the KGB but despite this "recommendation "' he is said to be a cultured, well-educated and able man, possessing a 'solid' political background.

Being "only" 67 is also advantageous. The largest single factor that will prevent Andropov from reaching the top is his lack of any broad support among the party secretaries. But I think he will be among the front runners.

Rising star The favourite of the bi-monthly magazine ''Problems of Communism" is Chernenko. It is incredible to note that Chernenko would have qualified for an old age pension in Britain four years ago. However, his career has blossomed in those years and again he is seen as something of a rising star.

The seating arrangements of the 26th Party Congress put him above anyone except Suslov. Another remarkable factor in his rise to the top eschelons has been that he is nominally in charge of agriculture while in the last four years agriculture has been a total disaster in the USSR.

However, Chernenko seems to have exonerated himself from any blame for these calamities.

Perhaps the major reason for this is his close personal friendship with Brezhnev.

Chernenko comes as close as anyone to being Brezhnev's confidant and advisor. These factors may augur well for eventual takeover provided Breztner himself does no go down in a tide of scandal and corruption.

Brian Lucas's tip for the top, is the head of the CP in Moscow, Viktor Grishin.

A spritely 67 year old, he has had 11 years at the top.

He has consistently come before the likes of Gromyko in seating arrangement and he is Chernenko without a doubt a "hardliner' It seems to have been Grishin who first moved for the invasion of Afghanistan, and he has always argued for a tougher line in With the US plunging into a massive arms build-up associated with a new type of cold war politics, the Kremlin may feel the need for a hard man at the top, and Grishin seems to fit the bill.

Some commentators tend to dismiss Grishin as not capable for the job and better suited to his present position in Moscow, but it is that position in the mainstream of Russian political affairs that has enabled Grishin to manoeuvre himself into the extremely healthy position he is today.

The problem with tavourites in this race is that it is very much like the Grand National rather than the Gold Cup, in other words they don't always run to form and they can get pulled down by some stray runner which has no hope of success for himself.

The main features of the winner of this race will be the ability to conform, ruthlessness to get to the top position and ability to live a long time.

On past form the characteristics the successor will have to have are: an age of ten years younger than the incumbent; close association with him; a long tenure in both the Politburo and the Central Committee; and to be an ethnic Russian.

However, the face of the Soviet oligarchy is changing, antiquity is now a prerequisite. Although Stalin was 73 and Kruschev 70 when they died the average age, of the Politburo was then much younger. Kruschev was 59 when he took control and Brezhnev 58.

The major reason why the average age has increased quite so dramatically is basically due to a dearth of the old-style purges.

Whether this will start a new trend of leadership where one geriatric passes on control to another so vastly increasing the frequency of change of leader, we have yet to see.

This also could have the by-product of increasing the instability at the top of the bureaucratic machine.

So the most likely outcome of the Kremlin chase is some form of dead heat, with the top prize being shared by three runners, quite which permutation of bureaucrats, will how long he stays in office.

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Socialist Organiser no. 76 March 11, 1982 Page 1/

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membership of the Polit- buro goes back to Stalin's

very much depend on how long Brezhnev lives - and