Where Next for Nian Workers?

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Islamic faith helped Iran to victory - but it won't last forever The Shah was toppled - but a new despotism has consolidated Iran has announced the recapture of the town of Khoramshar - a major victory in the long war with Iraq. Mary Corbishley examines the prospects for the workers regime.

AS the Iraqis battle to hold on to the oil port of Khoramshar, the 20 monthold war between Iran and Iraq is reaching a critical stage.

When Iran was invaded in September 1980, Saddam Hussein had planned for a quick victory which would secure a place for Iraq as the strong state of the Gulf.

Against all expectations the war has dragged on and in the recent operations there has been a dramatic turnabout in Iran's fortunes and the outcome of the present battle is being anxiously watched by the other Gulf States.

What has become clear is the extent to which the Iranian regime has consolidated itself over the last year.

The army, which at the outset of the war was a fragmented force reflecting the different elements within the political scene, has been systematically purged and a new leadership has emerged loyal to Khomeini.

Rivalry and mistrust which existed previously between the army and the pasdarans (revolutionary guards) has been overcome -many of the new breed of army officers are drawn from a similar background to that of the pasdarans.

A bloody purge of the opposition through arrest, torture and execution has succeeded for the time being at least in driving the organisations underground.

A major opposition force, the Mojahedin e Khalq estimate that 10,000 people have been executed.

Since the killing of their military leader Khiabani in February this year they have been forced into increasingly disparate and clandestine activity.

Severe blows have been suffered by all left organisations. And even the Tudeh Party and the Fedayeen Majority who with slavish adherence to the regime (in the name of the 'anti-imperialist' struggle) condoned the attack on the opposition, are now themselves increasingly victims of this attack.

Clergy

More recently the political elimination of Ayatollah Shariat Madari, the spiritual leader of the Azerbaijanis indicates the preparations being made to ensure the appropriate successor to Khomeini and te continuation of the prinsible of Velayet e Faqih irale by the clergy with the Inal say on all matters soiritual and temporal exting in the hands of the preme guardian -. at eaten: Khomeini).

I. he absence of any successor it iS ===1:0 appoint a 3 or 5 sores counsil of guardians.

1s3U0WE che 1-: 1.ad. concept of Velayet e Faqih, apol one of its staunchest oppon- impl ents being Shariat Madari. agair wou He believes that the clergy should concern them- with remi selves only with spiritual quie affairs and that rule by a supreme guardian leads to hard the dangers of a dictator- sater ship. However, the public bloo ogy by Madari for being licated in an 'uprising nst the government' Id indicate that even the nants of opposition in the clergy are being tly controlled.

Vhere Iran lacks military ware, it has compenI by the regime's coldded ability to sacrifice huge numbers of the popul ation for 'the cause of Islam' During the February operations in which Bostan was recaptured, 14 and 15 year old school students ran Kami Kaze style into the minefields of the Iraqi defences. This suicidal heroism reflects the deep rooted tradition of martyrdom which runs through the Shi'ite brand of Islam.

Rationing

Families have willingly handed over their sons to be trained by the local Mullahs to die for the faith. To date about 60,000 people have been killed in the war with as many wounded. Tributes to these martyrs of Islam adorn the walls and streets of Teheran and other towns.

Such heavy casualties, have however been coupled with the severe rationing imposed to maintain the war effort as well as the phenomenal cost of the wi - to the extent that Ira has literally run out of mo The regime recent!! ied to sell their equivalent the crown jewels in ord t0 raise hard cash succeeded in selling 150 ons of gold to Britain. This c :onomic plight makes prolonged war difficult for the regime.

Devastating

Despite the proclamations of the more fanatical elements of the clergy. insisting that the war will continue Saddam's downfall and the establishment of an Islamic Republie in Irag. the signs are that in expectation .. : sitory plans for peace The more conservative elements in the government around the President Khameini are less concerned with Saddam's downfall and more concerned to ensure that the devastating effects of the war will not spark off mass discontent.

Refugee

They are aware that even among the most loyal Khomeini followers, support will eventually wear thin, and that families wil not continue to give up one member after another to martyrdom.

Nor will victory sustain the thousands living in makeshift refugee camps. A central part of Iran's peace conditions is the demand for war reparations, badly needed to carry out reconstruction work in the war Zones.

In addition a hasty attempt to rebuild the economy is being made. Food and raw materials are badly needed. Factories are currently running at only 30% of their full capacity.

In the absence of money, Iran is using its oil supplies to barter with other countries and are now supplying oil to New Zealand in return for meat.

The price of Iran's oil has been reduced to $30 a barrel, $4 below the OPEC prices, another factor concerning the Gulf states.

Revenues

More recently they have signed a prestigious contract with. Brazil, which has broken its long-standing alicgiance to iraq, in return for cheap oil and a contract in carry out reconstruction work in Iran.

Recognising that a strong Iran may emerge victorious out of the Gulf war, the firm support for iraq from the Gulf and other Arab states is beginning to falter.

A hastily-convened meeting of the Gulf states has been postponed to the end of the month to await the outcome of the recent fighting. Without their support Ion in in no nacition to ron. anuc.

Saddam Hussein has borrowed heavily from the Gulf states in order to finance the war. The loan of £13.6 million is already running low and there is no sign that the amount will be increased. In addition revenues from oil have been severely curtailed following Syria's decision to stop carrying Iraq's oil through the trans-Syrian pipeline, as part of its support for Iran.

If the war is to continue Hussein will have to exact a heavier toll on the Iraqi people. However the war effort in Iraq lacks the strong ideological motivation of Iran's war and it is by no means certain that Saddam can command a great deal of support for prolonging it.

Heavy price

Even with increased funding it seems clear that Iraq is not in a strong position militarily. In recent days they have called on other Arab states to send their armies to the aid of Iraq.

Whatever the outcome of the war the people of Iran and Iraq will have paid a heavy price for it. A defeat for Iraq will be a severe blow to Saddam and could open up the way to a struggle to remove him.

A victory for Iran will further strengthen the regime, at least temporarily. For the left it may seem that they have been thrust back into the same position as they were under the Shah, but the grievances of the working class, the peasantry, of the national: minorities and of women can no more be answered by this regime than they could by the Shah's.

Take stock

Islamic faith alone will not sustain the urban and rural poor indefinitely. The mass discontent that brought down the Shah will yet remove this regime. Forced back into a clandestine situation it is vital that the left take stock of their struggle over the last three years.

The sham anti-imperialism which for so long tor khomeinı nas in practice been exposed many over.

The recent sale of oil to the US through an intermediary in Switzerland is just one more example.

For the Iranian working class the next period will be a test of their ability to forge a path independent of the Islamic regime.

Imperialism

One step in this direction would be the development of the fight for the opening of the books of the dislocated and ravaged Iranian economy to uncover the links between the major enterprises and the imperialist banks and monopolies.

Since Khomeini's regime has made so much of its struggle against imperialism' the demand must be raised for the expropriation of the remaining major imperialist holdings without compensation, and for these to be developed, under workers' control, as part of a planned socialist economy.

The post-war reconstruction offers a further opportunity for agitation around the question of unemployment - with the demand for a programme of public works to create new jobs for Workers the defeat of the so-called "fascist" Saddam Hussein must be followed up by intensified propaganda and agitation for the democratic rights of women, gays, the oppressed minorities, the labour and socialist movement in Iran itself.

If these demands were to be pressed home they would quickly expose the hollowness of Khomeini's 'antiimperialism' and point to the common cause of Iran's working masses in fighting for the overthrow of the vicious Islamic regime.

But the last period has taken a heavy toll of the Iranian left - and the repression has further isolated the small forces of revolutionary The end of the war may be in sight - but the struggle for workers' power in Iran is once again only in its early stages. storan

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Socialist Organiser, Thursday F7E:

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