Army Rule

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ALTHOUGH the final lails of the results. are o come, the recent elec • Brazi will bring dran change to the political em, and an opportunity the development of a rad erhaps revolutionary, Norkers' Party.

The military rulers, democratic and agalilculions for 18 hoped to keep their hol rovernment by balloting, dirty tricks, and inti "Nothing will ch in economic policies" Hared their economic I iter Delfim Netto before rotes were counted.

Whatever they claim result to be, the election victory for the apposition parties.

All the states of ce: political and economic portance in the countr Rio de Janeiro, Minas Ge rao Paulo and Rio Gri lo Sul - have voted agi he government's party, o-called Social Democ tresident Joao Figuei laptista, who wanted a s ial dismantling of mili ule, is really opening ur loodgates of change.

The governing party • the small states of the not, areas with a long t on of 'coronelismo' -¡ Carty bosses. Mafiawere employed maintain this.

The opposition pa • probably have the ity of votes cast betv iem, and we can also or targe number of bi Apers "disallowed' by pime as votes for the o on.

The party with the r i all be the Braz Moven DB). which will cap Minas Gerais Pain. and at least mersorship in Sao Pauk This party comes ou aI was for vears the s opposition to President Fionpir. e50 = aiming montanllod crensirion, but nes he opened the floodgates?

MI destill tions natic sy st/ for lical, mass who the bour ears, d on -riggimidange • deminie the i the is are rajor ntral imrais, ande ainst , the rats. redo graditary › the won : intradirule style 1 to Ities majveen ount allot the pponost ilian nent iture the it of offithe 273. regime in the talking shop of a national assembly set up by the generals to give a democratic face to military rule.

The MDB was known as the 'yes, sir!' party because of its mealy-mouthed atti-. tude to repression. In this party are to be found -the professional middle class and some sections of the business world not directly tied up to the public sector industries run by the military. The MDB is aiso supported by the Brazilian Communist Party, which sees it as representing the "progressive forces':

The MDB is a pretty disparate movement, which will not maintain its present form in a future parliamentary system.

A large number of Brazilian voters see the solution for the future as a return to the nationalist past. Among these is the veteran Communist Party leader Luis Carlos Prestes, now in his eighties, who went against the Party line to support the old populist politician Lionel Brizola.

Like neighbouring Argentina, Brazil went through a period of nationalism. In Brazil this lasted from 1930 to 1964. The most important figures then were Getulio Vargas and Joao Goulart.

They allowed for the growth of a state-sponsored trade union movement under heavy government domination - a policy similar to that pursued by Peron in Argentina. In its struggle to establish an economically independent: Brazil, the old "populist' state was forced to rely on the masses for support.

1964 Events like the signing of nationalisation decrees by President Goulart in front of mass rallies of trade unionists worried the United States, Brazilian industrialists, and the army to the extent that they overthrew the old regime in 1964 before it could be overthrown by the developing mass movement.

Lionel Brizola was state governor in Rio Grande do Sul at the time, and he mobilised state forces to resist coup attempts. He even went to the extent of arming some sections of the population. He threw in the towel in April 1964, however, when it was clear that the military would win.

Brizola's PDT represents the continuation of the old corporatist Brazilian Labour Party (PTB). He is likely to win the governorship of Rio de Janeiro, though the PDT's successes elsewhere wil be small.

The new Workers' Party (PT), led by Lula, the militant carworkers' leader, was the most significant contestant in this election. The PT Will not win any state governorships, and its vote will have been squeezed by the pressure to vote for the MDB as the 'lesser evil'.

Nevertheless, the PT should pick up enough of a vote to confirm it as a major political force.

What are the prospects in the next few years? One option is a military coup', disallowing the vote, promising new elections, and renewing and escalating repression on the Chilean or Argentine scale. This is highly unlikely given the obvious opposition to continued military rule in all important social classes Brazil.

The second option is to delay as long as possible the transfer of executive power to the opposition, especially elections for the presidency. This will mean conflict between the central government and opposition state governors, and unrest from the probable opposition majority among federal deputies:

The third alternative is a more rapid devolution of power, on the model of deperhaps an MDB or centre government for the first period of elected civilian government. • The Spanish model is one which many Brazilians are focusing on. Brizola is astute enough to realise that there is no chance of a return to old-style state 'populism' given the social and economic changes in the country icine 'ula's Workers' Party must resist in the last two decades.

He wants to create a new Socialist Party from a fusion of the PDT, the Workers Party, and sections of the MDB. The fortunes of such a party would improve with a decline in the centre. It would also lead to the ruination of the Workers' Party as an independent political force.

The independent trade union militants must resist Brizola's overtures. The incorporation of their forces into a demagogic electoralist party will lead to defeat as surely as the old populism did in 1964.

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looks at the opposition Brazil's

Francoisation in Spain, with acks