The 'upturn has already arrived!

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RECENT figures from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD: an association of the main advanced capitalist countries] give a picture of the current limited economic upturn.

The OECD estimates that industrial production in the seven biggest capitalist economies. rose at a rate of 24% per year in the first half of 1983. Between 1981 and 1982 it had fallen 4.6%.

Total national income in all OECD countries rose at 1¼% per annum in the first half of 1983 [in real terms], after falling 0.2% between 1981 and 1982.

, Just as the recession started in the United States (in early 1979], so too the upturn has originated there. Some sectors of the US economy have risen sharply. Car sales have gone up over 30%, and all three big car firms are making profits again. Overall, the OECD expects about 5% growth in the US national income between 1982 quarter 4 and 1983 quarter 4.

However, the upturn is very limited _ more limited even than the upturn of 1976, after the 1974-5 slump.

The OECD expects lower growth than in the US everywhere except Japan. And in France, Italy, Benelux, Greece, Iceland, Southern Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, Australia and New Lealand, it expects further decline or very littie growth between 1982 and 1983.

The OECD is not optimistic about the revival of business investment that is needed to give a capitalist upswing life and vigour. "Such a pick-up in investment is by no means assured"

The main reason for this is the decline in the rate of profit. "For example, taking six of the largest OECD countries as • group, realised rates of return [on capital] in manufacturing fell from 20 to 13 per cent between 1973 and 1981 While a small decline in the labour share of value added is expected this year, realised rates of return are unlikely to recover to the rates prevailing before the second oil shock" [in 1979].

Martin In the US, the upturn has marginally reduced unemployment. But the OECD does not expéct 1983 average unemployment rates to be lower than 1982's in any of the major capitalist countries.

The total numbers out of work in the OECD are expected to rise from 29.9 million in 1982 to 33¾ million in 1983.

As the British economy plunged into slump after mid-1979, the Tories kept on promising that it was about to 'turn the corner' The upturn, such as it is, is here. It's very far from the glow. ing prosperity the Tories promised.

The UK index of industrial production [seasonally adjusted] stood at a high of 116.6 in 1979 quarter 2. It declined to a low of 100.8 in 1981 quarter 2, and then recovered, very slowly to 102.3 in 1982 quarter 4. Since then, in line with the general world capitalist upturn, the index has increased further to 103.7 in 1982 quarter 2.

That's still 11% below the 1979 level.

The figures for nationa. income show the same pattern, though less sharply.

The high was 112.7 in 1979 quarter 2. The low was 104.6, in 1981 quarter 2. The figures for 1982 quarter 4 and 1983 quarter one were 106.7 and 107.2. This upturn is nowhere near strong enough to reduce unemployment. It also leaves the decline in UK manufacturing industry continuing apace.

Fixed capital expenditure in manufacturing industry was £1006 million in 1979 quarter 4. By 1983 quarter one it had sunk to £629 million, and was still declining. (Figures adjusted to 1975 prices).

According to the Economist, September 24, the industrial rate of profit is still so low that an average capitalist can gain more by lending money to a bank than by investing it in British manufacturing.

The index of engineering order books stood at 81 in May 1983 [1975 is 100 — and, remember, 1975 was a slump year]. This index has oscillated between 79 and 90 for years, and shows no signs of an upturn. SSIN Day school 11 431 *..tr T0p R.:.: K.: tonafo \/0.

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